2011 Annual Conference

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Sunday, May 1, 2011

1:00 p.m.- 5:00 p.m. Conference Tutorials
Note: Tutorials run concurrently

The Best and the Worst of Predictive Analytics: Predictive Modeling Methods and Common Data Mining Mistakes
John F. Elder, Ph.D., CEO and Founder, Elder Research, Inc.

Predictive analytics has proven capable of enormous returns across industries – but, with so many core methods for predictive modeling, there are some tough questions that need answering: How do you pick the right one to deliver the greatest impact for your business, as applied over your data? What are the best practices along the way? And how do you avoid the most treacherous pitfalls? This half-day session surveys standard and advanced methods for predictive modeling.

Dr. Elder will describe the key inner workings of leading algorithms, demonstrate their performance with business case studies, compare their merits, and show you how to pick the method and tool best suited to each predictive analytics project. Methods covered include classical regression, decision trees, neural networks, ensemble methods, uplift modeling and more. The key to successfully leveraging these methods is to avoid "worst practices". It's all too easy to go too far in one's analysis and "torture the data until it confesses" or otherwise doom predictive models to fail where they really matter: on new situations. Dr. Elder will share his (often humorous) stories from real-world applications, highlighting the Top 10 common, but deadly, mistakes. Come learn how to avoid these pitfalls by laughing (or gasping) at stories of barely averted disaster.

Developing Optimal Pricing, Reimbursement and Market Access Strategies for Pharma and Biotech Products in Today's Evolving US Healthcare Environment
Christian Schuler, Partner and Head of Life Science, San Francisco Office, Simon- Kucher & Partners

In today's environment of accelerating health care costs, key stakeholders are increasing pricing pressures on pharmaceutical and biotech companies. While ultimately all stakeholders determine market access & product use by weighing product value and price relative to competitors, each stakeholder uses their own approach in order to control their healthcare costs. Developing a robust US pricing strategy requires an understanding of the nuances of key stakeholders including payers, physicians and patients as well as market experience to determine how pricing decisions will impact the uptake of a Life Sciences innovation. In addition, it is also important to consider how the strategy fits in the broader global picture.

This workshop will give the attendee an in-depth understanding of value-based pricing research methodologies, the implications of healthcare reform in the United States, strategies for improving payer contracting in the US, and tips for developing robust pricing, reimbursement, and market access strategies with the goal of optimizing the launch strategy for Life Sciences innovations in today's healthcare market. We will also discuss how to harmonize international prices of Life Sciences innovations in evolving global markets. Learn how to approach these challenges from Simon-Kucher & Partners, the global leader in Life Sciences market access and pricing.

6:30 pm – 9:30 pm
Welcome Reception – Americana Lawn
Sponsored by ASI Business Solutions, Inc.

Monday, May 2, 2011

7:00 a.m.- 8:00 a.m.

8:00 a.m.- 8:15 a.m.President's Welcome Address
Katharine McMullen

8:15 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.Keynote Presentation: The Future of Health Care
Jeffrey C. (Jeff) Bauer, Ph.D., Health Futurist and Medical Economist

9:30 a.m. - 9:35 a.m.Presentation of Lifetime Achievement Award

9:35 a.m. - 10:20 a.m. General Session 1: Healthcare Reform – Areas of Opportunity for Pharma
JP Tsang, Bayser Consulting
The Healthcare Reform signed into law on Mar 23, 2010 has set in motion dramatic changes that will climax in 2014 and will continue to unravel past 2018. The question that begs to be explored is a pragmatic one: How can the Pharmaceutical Industry benefit from the Healthcare Reform? There are indeed numerous areas of opportunity, some obvious and some more subtle. In the obvious camp, one area of opportunity lies within the 19-26 young adults. Until now, a child is immediately dropped off his/her parents' insurance as soon as the child either graduates from high school and elects not to go to college or graduates from college. Under the new law, the child can stay under his/her parent's insurance plan. This is clearly a boon for manufacturers of drugs consumed primarily by the young, such as ADHD and Asthma drugs. This paper visits a few provisions of PPACA, and uncovers opportunities that the savvy pharmaceutical marketer may leverage.

10:20 a.m.- 10:45 a.m.Break

10:45 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. General Session 2: Social Network Influence and Prescriber Brand Decisions: Analysis in Diabetes and Dyslipidemia
Greg Gallo, MedNetworks, Inc.

Social network influence is a major contributor to a broad range of human behaviors. Since physicians and other prescribers form social networks in local communities, it is reasonable to hypothesize that social network influence contributes to prescribing behavior. Incorporation of social network information to guide pharmaceutical promotion targeting offers the opportunity for improvements in both efficiency and effectiveness. This is increasingly important given reduced sales force size, decreasing physician access and multi-channel promotion tools. Emerging research at Harvard University allows accurate calculation of network effects on physician behaviors through analysis of pharmacy and medical claims data. The use of claims data for this work offers efficiencies of its own as compared to commissioning primary research. Key take-aways from this presentation include:

  • An understanding of how social network effects influence physician behavior
  • An overview of the methodologies used in network analysis
  • Case studies that explain the dynamics of product adoption and product discontinuation via network effects for several drugs in the US market
11:30 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.General Session 3: Successful Multi-channel Pharma Promotion: Lessons From Across Industries
Randy Risser , Axtria, Inc.

The pharmaceutical industry is a leader in the area of field sales organizations. From strategy to tactics, few industries match the sophistication with which pharma companies deploy sales reps. Ironically, having become a master in this one channel, pharma now finds itself in a multichannel world, where field sales organizations play a diminishing role. Fortunately, multichannel sales and marketing models are not new. Industries ranging from insurance to CPG to retail have evolved to multi-channel models, and pharma can take valuable lessons from their experiences.

This presentation offers a perspective on how other industries solve the multi-stakeholder multichannel challenge. The presentation will include case studies that show how specific multichannel sales and marketing issues – e.g., integrating channels, allocating spend across channels, optimizing on-line channels - are successfully addressed in other industries. We will identify implications for the pharmaceutical industry, and discuss what this means for us as Management Science professionals.

12:15 p.m. - 2:45 p.m.Lunch, VENDOR FAIR and Posters

Download Poster Presentation Abstracts
  • Exploring the differences in patient adherence between the retail and specialty pharmacy distribution channels (Michel Denarie)
  • The Relative Contribution of Message Optimization (Brian Gibbs)
  • Role of IDNs and IDN/Hospital formulary contracting in the IDN spillover and carryover (Igor Rudychev)
  • Doing More with Less With Aggregated EHR Data (Steve Davis)
  • Managed Care Contracting Performance: Optimizing Actual vs. Predicted Managed Care Plan Performance Based on Multivariate Plan Data (Dan Barton)
  • The Role of Routing in Group Practice Based Selling Model (David Bendall)
  • Accelerating sales force performance through superior call planning analytics and call adherence (Rohit Anand)
  • Applying Behavioral Economics to Territory Alignment (Navdeep Chadha)
  • Examination of yearly out of pocket prescription costs increases on patient behavior. Application of patient longitudinal data methodologies integrated with managed care adjudicated data (Joel Silver)
  • Persistency and Compliance: Revisited (Dan Feldman)
  • Patient card program ROI measurement with transaction-level, longitudinal patient data: test versus control and analysis of covariance (Christene Song)
  • Increase Brand Performance by Leveraging SFA Transactional Data (Michael Li)
  • Integrating Managed Markets Insights into Promotion Mix Analysis (Andrew Aiken)
  • Pharmaco-bamanomics: A Rogue Analyst Explores How to Thrive in the 21st Century (Jaswinder Chadha)
  • Measuring Promotion Response using Test-Control Methodology, a Novel Approach (Aaron Foster)
  • Medicare Part D: Estimating Pharma Co's Liability in the Donut Hole (Katrina Simpson)
2:45 p.m.- 3:30 p.m.General Session 4: Collaborative Analytics
David Menzies, ASI

In an era of significant economic, competitive and political pressures, manufacturers are being forced to question all aspects of the commercial business model. While more commonly associated with research and development, incorporating collaborative analytics into the commercial side of the business has been shown to consistently deliver substantial revenue growth. The more pervasive stove piped analytical model lacks the transparency, agility and flexibility that is essential in order to do more with less.

This presentation will compare and contrast the pervasive stove piped analytical model against collaborative analytics, describe the critical ingredients for the collaborative model, offer several case studies that describe how collaborative analytics has been used to improve the effectiveness of commercial operations and finally, offer a glimpse of what is beyond collaborative analytics.

3:30 p.m.- 4:00 p.m.Break, VENDOR FAIR and posters (30 min)

4:00 p.m.- 4:30 p.m.PMSA Business Meeting

4:30 p.m. - 5:15 p.m.General Session 5: Doing Optimum with Less – Our Strategy for Maintaining/Enhancing Analyses, with Less Resources
Karthikeyan Chidambaram, Genentech

Pharmaceutical / Biotech industry is going through one of the toughest phases in the recent decades. Almost all firms are affected by many of the following issues - Healthcare Reform Impact, Economy, Austerity measures by governments, patent cliff of 2012. This is has resulted in a wide variety of constraints, when it comes to analysis. While the budgets and the resources available for the analysts have been reduced considerably, the analysis requirements and standards have increased equally, if not more.

Per the saying "Innovation is the ability to see change as an opportunity - not a threat" - it always brings the best out of people, when they are left with tough options to choose from. Just like our peers in the industry, we had our fair share of challenges from the market place and our internal Integration efforts added a lot to our plate as well. We mitigated these challenges with a mechanism to increase the high quality, high end analysis supporting the strategic decision making with the available limited resources. This paper will attempt to highlight the strategies adopted by our department to maintain and enhance the quality & quantity of deliverables, while reducing the efforts & resources.

This paper will explain the wide mix of tactics employed, ranging from simple synergies that were leveraged to cross-departmental initiatives, with success stories and challenges encountered along the way. A representative sample of the areas discussed in detail:

  • PLD – Where to use and where to avoid
  • Primary Research vs Secondary Analysis
  • Partnering with Development / Clinical Peers
  • Tactical Skills – Applicable at all levels of the organization, resulting in efficiencies
5:15 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.Housekeeping

6:15 p.m.PMSA Special Event (Depart at 6:30)

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

7:00 a.m. -8:00 a.m.Breakfast

8:00 a.m. - 9:15 a.m.OPENING PRESENTATION
Polyadic Versus Monadic Designs in Pharmaceutical Pricing Research
Mick Kolassa, Medical Marketing Economics (MME), LLC

For pricing in pharmaceutical markets, the several tradeoff methodologies widely in use are far from ideal – although far better than their antecedents in terms of value and usefulness, the methods have many shortcomings that beg for improvement. Just as the pharmaceutical agents developed in the 1960s and marketed in the 70s and 80s were good for their time, better agents have replaced them. The principal debate in pharmaceutical pricing research world has centered on appropriate research methods. Some swear by conjoint and other trade-off methodologies while others use the VanWestendorp methods and still other argue that a "monadic" methodology is superior because it limits the potential for the biases that can come about from exposing respondents to multiple prices. Although the monadic versus polyadic debate is important, there is a considerable amount of misinformation flowing through the debate. The question is not monadic versus trade-off or other models; in fact there are four separate issues that must be debated:
1. The relative merits of monadic versus polyadic designs
2. The specific price(s) to test
3. The way in which the research question is posed
4. The way in which the response to the "payoff" question is recorded

9:15 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.General Session 6: Novel Modeling Applications of Primary Patient Level Data to Fill Gaps in Secondary Data Sources for Forecasting
Jeff Brodscholl and Steve Yonish, BioVid Corporation

Recent challenges faced by the pharmaceutical industry have converged with the trend away from small molecule blockbusters towards specialty products in niche markets to put pressure on, and expose limitations in, the contributions of traditional secondary data streams to standard forecasting methods. In this presentation, we discuss a unique contribution that primary patient record studies can make when confronting these limitations in forecasting for data-poor markets: The opportunity to model dynamic, intertemporal components of demand with estimates that are driven by longitudinal information in the treatment histories themselves. Specifically, by modeling patient record-level heterogeneity in product preferences and integrating it with analyses of treatment durations captured in the records, we show how it is possible to simulate key components of uptake and decay in new product demand without recourse to secondary data analogs or assumptions about the shape or functional form of the uptake and decay curves themselves. We discuss how simple elaborations on this method can allow for a decomposition of the estimated components of uptake and decay into patient, physician, and treatment characteristics which give rise to variability in treatment persistency, with an eye toward producing both a more accurate estimate, and insight into the drivers, of predicted changes in demand. A case study involving the application of this method to a franchise forecast is discussed.

10:00 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.Break and VENDOR FAIR

10:15 a.m.- 11:00 a.m.General Session 7: Optimizing the Discontinuation of Personal Promotion Pre-Patent Expiry
Larry Donnell Reed , SDI

With pressure growing daily on pharmaceutical manufacturers to maximize profits in an environment where patent cliffs loom as decision points for the brand and its promotion. Specifically a critical point comes as one creeps closer to the cliff where brand teams must decide on optimal timing for discontinuing personal promotion for the medication. Discontinue too soon and the brand team leaves prescribing potential on the table. Discontinue too late and the brand will overspend on field resources with a diminishing return on marginal revenues. Another lever maintained by the brand manager is how much to deploy resources against nonpersonal promotion techniques relative to the personal promotional efforts. This presentation tackles the optimization of this important decision using advanced statistical promotional response techniques to help solve this issue.

Presentation Approach: The presentation will go through a sample project approach which focuses on the determination of the optimal time to cease personal promotion pre-patent expiry. The analysis structure used to solve this optimization problem will include:

  • Physician prescribing patterns among new and total prescriptions
  • Physician choice modeling among available treatment options
  • Patient-level adherence with target drug therapy
  • Product attribute scoring model
  • Overall Company Promotional Effort (inclusive of sales force size and other promotional priorities)
  • Competitive Market Share of Voice (SOV)
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.PANEL DISCUSSION
1) How Commercial Operations Can Prosper in New commercial Environments
John Kain, TGAS

In this session TGaS will share insights on best and emerging practices that prepare Commercial Operations organizations to implement winning approaches to enhance the value proposition for their commercial teams. This session will explore:

  • how to provide visibility to commercial operations costs/investments
  • how to systematically obtain and use feedback from internal partners and stakeholders
  • how to establish service level agreements or descriptions and using them to demonstrate MS performance
TGaS will also present a model of the characteristics and behaviors of organizations that have achieved strategic partner status with its key stakeholders.

2) Management Science Skills for the Next Decade
Thomas Foster, Foster Rosenblatt

This session addresses the issues that face everyone in the management sciences. Specifically, what will be the landscape for each of the management science functions over the next decade? What skills are required to satisfy these needs? Do I have the skills to stay employed or excel in my chosen field?

This session will explore the results of a survey that explores trends in pharmaceutical management science. More than 500 management science professionals were surveyed, from senior executives to the managers who do all the work. We have collected a significant body of
knowledge on what the employment/skills environment will look like over the next decade, and we are able to show what "best practices" are likely to be. And we are able to specifically show what skills will be most valued by employers.

12:30 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.Lunch and VENDOR FAIR (1 ½ hrs)

2:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.RESEARCH CONSORTIUM

In certain therapy areas, when manufacturers are faced with allocating their resources to the right practitioners, traditional sales or prescription data falls short when it comes to identifying physicians treating a specific condition. Either the drug is the first to market to treat the condition of interest, or the condition is treated by drugs which are themselves used for many indications. The appropriate use of longitudinal patient data can help overcome this difficult challenge. In this presentation, we will show how we were able to segment prescribers based on the volume of patients they treat for a specific disease – in this case: Fibromyalgia.

  • We will also show how we validated the reliability of the model by using hold out samples of patients for which we do have access to a clean diagnosis.
  • Once the model is validated, we then apply it to the LRx longitudinal prescription data to identify the practitioners of interest and rank them according to their fibromyalgia potential.
Segmenting Physicians Based on Patient Load for Specific Conditions
Michel Denarie, Terry Shea, JP Tsang, IMS, Bayser

The Impact of Longitudinal Patient Data from Commercially Insured Patient Analysis for Injectible Drug Market on Managed Care SWOT Analytics
David Menzies, Lou Brooks, ASI, I3

2:00 p.m. – 4: 30 p.m.PANEL DISCUSSION
APLD Utilization

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

7:00 a.m. - 8:00 a.m.Breakfast

8:00 a.m.- 8:45 a.m.Track A: Managed Care - Innovative Contracting and Risk Sharing
Heather Steinfield, Simon-Kucher & Partners

With steadily rising healthcare expenditures, healthcare cost containment has sprung to the forefront of global payer agendas. As a result, innovative pharmaceutical pricing and risk-sharing contracts have emerged as a way for manufacturers to address payers' budgetary concerns, access hurdles, and cost containment tools without lowering the optical list price of a drug. Innovative contracts can also be used to address utilization and competitive challenges faced by a product. This session provides a hypothetical framework for developing and structuring innovative pharmaceutical pricing structures:

  • Learn the fundamental principles behind innovative contracting
  • Learn countries and market situations for which it is strategically appropriate
  • Understand the strategic considerations a manufacturer must account for when structuring an innovative contracting program
  • Understand barriers from payers' and manufacturers' perspectives when considering innovative contracting
Track B: Micro Analysis - Recent Trends and Insights in Promotion Response: Real Opportunities to Increase Sales with Less
Kevin Kirby, Michael Allen Company

Most pharmaceutical sales and marketing budgets have taken significant cuts since the economic downturn starting in 2008. The science of promotion response truly allows pharmaceutical companies to improve sales performance, even with reduced levels of promotional spending. There are several ways to achieve this result in theory:

  • Improving the quality of promotion based on observed promotion response
  • Targeting promotional spending to a more responsive audience
  • Reducing promotional spend on inherently less impactful activities
But we have observed in recent practice that promotion response often fails to achieve this result, for a variety of reasons. We will discuss the most common stumbling blocks of promotion response and point out specific pitfalls to avoid:

  • Organizational roles and responsibilities
  • Culture around data and decision making
  • Fundamental flaws in retrospective models and promotion response approaches
We will also provide recent results from several promotion response projects that avoid these issues. We will highlight several critical areas to be addressed in promotion response if we truly expect to do more with less going forward. Based on recent measurement of promotional impact and ROI across many activities and markets, we will summarize the activities that have recently shown strong or increasing responsiveness and hypothesize reasons for these findings.

8:45 a.m.-9:30 a.m.Track A: Managed Care - A New Field Management Paradigm in a Managed Care World
Irina Popova and David Martin, Michael Allen Company

We are entering a new era in pharmaceutical marketing and sales management. In particular, the growing importance of managed care is changing the marketing and sales management paradigm. Branded manufacturers have responded with new contracting analyses (i.e.,incorporating "spillover" into managed care contract economic evaluation), marketing tactics (i.e. co-pay cards), and reduction in total field sales effort (i.e., fewer sales reps or PDEs assigned to a brand). This more challenging environment also requires improved management of field resources. Our traditional approaches to physician segmentation, targeting & call planning, territory design, and compensation need to be revised and enhanced to reflect managed care influence . . . not just our expected brand position from a given formulary design, but also the degree of control managed care exerts on physician choice.  We will provide a strategic framework illustrating how managed care favorability and managed care control both need to enter into our field management decisions, and provide specific tactical case examples including the reallocation of field resources to "achieve more with less."

Track B: Micro Analysis - Measuring Prescription Leakage
Joel Silver, Wolters Kluwer Pharma Solutions

Our presentation will provide the audience with an understanding of the importance of measuring prescription leakage, the current difficulties with doing so and an introduction of a new metric (URx) that can measure the interplay between patient, provider and plan influences on brand share at a local level. We will walk the audience through how to create and apply the URx metric to their business and provide them real case examples of how to use and interpret the metric and more importantly, what actionable insights can be gleaned from this new metric.

9:30 a.m.- 10:15 a.m.Track A: Managed Care - Modeling the Impact of U.S. Healthcare Reform on Pharmaceutical Drug Sales
Ozgur Ozkan, Health Market Science

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) of 2009 generated plenty of interest from many stakeholders with its premise of expanding U.S. health insurance coverage to 32 million by year 2019. Although the potential impact of this PPACA, more commonly known as the Healthcare Reform, is very high for pharmaceutical companies, there is no straightforward method to estimate the overall business outcomes. On one hand, increasing healthcare access is expected to increase total drug utilization. On the other hand, healthcare costs are definitely a concern and future benefit design and reimbursement decisions are likely to lead to more generic use and lower revenue per patient. In this regard, models can quantify the pros and cons of proposed changes and provide a useful tool for future decisions for pharmaceutical brands.

We present a simulation model of US health care system with particular emphasis on the changes proposed by the healthcare reform. The model uses various data sources to characterize the current status of the system in terms of US population, insurance coverage, employment status, and income levels. The timing and extent of proposed changes are applied on appropriate demographic segments over time to project a picture of US managed care system in 2019.

Track B: Micro Analysis - Optimizing Your Data for Evidence-based (ROI) Decision Making
Kunal Gupta, Burke, Inc. and Cynthia Dilley, UCB

Biopharmaceutical companies are oftentimes inundated with data. Most teams traditionally execute a combination of familiar primary research AND typically also have access to multiple streams of secondary data, including managed care metrics, patient longitudinal data and physician prescribing data (TRx/NRx).

In today's environment, it is critical to not only have relevant product and market data, but also to leverage these data streams to their full potential. If disparate streams of data were to be linked and evaluated concurrently, this would provide more robust, holistic, and actionable decision support for brand teams. Linking these disparate sources of data enables biopharmaceutical companies to prioritize various marketing strategies by simulating marketing ROI outcomes for each potential brand initiative. By successfully integrating diverse data points across multiple functional areas, decision-makers can have confidence in their brand-wide big picture business decisions.

Linking otherwise independent (primary and secondary) data sources to fully leverage the potential of this information should be table stakes for brand teams seeking to do more with less. Through Linkage Analysis, organizations can make evidenced-based decisions that will ultimately impact revenue. Determining how to link marketing actions to share and revenue will allow you to have more confidence in your strategies; thereby, increasing the efficiency of your research and marketing dollars.

10:15 a.m.- 10:45 a.m.Break and hotel checkout

10:45a.m. - 11:30 a.m.Track A: Managed Care - Regional Marketing: Healthcare in a Whole New Light
Jeff Spanbauer, Healthcare Regional Marketing

With rapid changes in the market, healthcare reform, and a new emerging commercial model, driving brand performance is increasingly challenging. Tighter budgets and smaller sales forces make it more difficult than ever to get your message to healthcare professionals (HCPs). However, rapid change creates opportunity. One aspect of this change is the fact that millions of previously-uninsured consumers will be entering the healthcare market, thus creating a significant opportunity for companies that are prepared. This preparation begins with understanding how healthcare reform, the new commercial model, and other market factors will impact the pharmaceutical industry and, ultimately, brand performance. Regional marketing is now an essential element of the marketing mix, resulting in increased return on investment for many brands. In order to capitalize on so many market changes, marketing and sales executives need to view healthcare in a whole new light.

Track B: Micro Analysis - A New Facility Targeting Model Integrating Both Inpatient and Outpatient Procedure Activity
Brian Griffin, Thomson Reuters

The continued migration of surgical procedures to outpatient settings has created a more complex challenge in targeting for procedure centric goods and services This presentation shows how the integration of facility-level data with payer centric claims data produces targeting information that covers both inpatient and outpatient activity for a defined set of procedures. Understanding the distribution of patients in the local market and the market share of these patient groups by specific facility, provides more specific information on hospital and non hospital facility targeting than is currently available.

11:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.Wrap up and raffle