2010 Annual Conference

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May 2, 2010

1:00 p.m.- 5:00 p.m. Conference Tutorials
Note: Tutorials run concurrently

1:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Pre-Conference Tutorial: Promotion Response-Driven Resource Allocation
Kevin Kirby, Vice President, Michael Allen Company

In this tutorial, we will show how to allocate resources to improve the overall return on promotional spend. Specifically, we will:

  • Discuss the framework for measuring promotion response and what factors must be included in order to enable optimal resource allocation
  • Idenfity common pitfalls to avoid in measuring promotion response that lead to wasteful promotional spend
  • Discuss how to apply historic results to decision making going forward
  • Demonstrate the mechanics of resource allocation using an Excel-based data set
  • Show in these examples how the optimal allocation differs by promotional activity
The resource allocation framework and techniques learned in this tutorial can be used to:
  • Determine the optimal spend on each brand and promotional activity
  • Determine the optimal mix of reach and frequency for sales force calls
  • Establish the level and mix of promotional activities for each customer
  • Develop target lists and allocations for each promotional activity
  • Build a simulator for evaluating different promotional spend scenarios

Pre-Conference Tutorial: Predictive Modeling to Address Data Gaps in Physician Targeting
Craig Nestel, Business Solutions Manager and Tom Lehman SAS

The fastest growing segment in today's Pharmaceutical marketplace is specialty markets - highly specialized therapies designed to treat chronic illnesses (such as oncology and rheumatoid arthritis). Currently, no effective data collection process exists to track utilization of these therapies at the physician level, making it difficult for Pharmaceutical companies to identify which physicians are utilizing their products or the competition's. As a result, Pharmaceutical companies have a real "blind spot" when it comes to physician targeting in specialty markets.

This tutorial presents an approach for addressing data gaps and targeting physicians in specialty markets using predictive modeling and optimization techniques using SAS®. The overall project identifies high-value physicians in specialty markets by correlating "sell-in" data, physician to institution relationships, primary and secondary research data along with anonymized patient level data (APLD). To address data sparseness in APLD, the project utilizes sophisticated projection algorithms to fill in the gaps, enabling true intelligence on the characteristics of treating physicians within the hospital/clinic setting. The output is the most complete behavioral-based physician profile available today for specialty markets.

May 3, 2010

8:00 a.m.- 8:15 a.m.

President's Welcome Address
Katharine McMullen

8:15 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.

|Keynote Address: Competing on Analytics in Pharmaceutical Firms
Thomas H. Davenport, President's Distinguished Professor of IT and Management, Babson College

In this presentation, Mr. Davenport will describe how some leading organizations compete on the basis of their analytical capabilities and fact-based decision-making. In research over the past five years he has identified more than 50 companies that base their strategies at least in part on their analytical orientations. He will discuss some of the particular challenges associated with analytical competition in pharmaceutical firms. Davenport will define what it means to compete on analytics in pharmaceuticals marketing, sales, and other functions, and how organizations in other industries that employ analytics achieve high performance. He will also describe the key capabilities necessary to succeed, and discuss how organizations make progress on the journey to analytical competition. His examples will focus specifically on analytical applications and programs in marketing, sales, and customer-facing processes, and will address strategic issues around data and analysis in the pharmaceutical industry.

9:35 a.m. - 10:25 a.m.

Pragmatic Approach to Analytics: Make it Work for You
Vladimir Velednitsky, Director, Pfizer

As analysts, we believe that the closer our clients will follow our recommendations – the better it is for them. However, when our recommendations apply to many clients in Sales, the correlation between the rate of following our directions and resulting performance is not always high enough. What is it due for: the human factor or the intricate limitations of analytics we provide?

This presentation briefly overviews different factors impacting the usability of analytical projects, and then turns its focus on the relationships between data quality, analytical developments, and the assessments of analytical project performance. It demonstrates how important it is to adequately assess the impact of data quality on selecting the right analytical approach and choosing right communication style with the clients to improve mutual trust and increase client's effectiveness.

This presentation proposes an organizational approach improving pharmaceutical organization's ability to assess and monitor "analytical effectiveness". The benefits and caveats of alternative ways to monitor analytical projects' performance will be provided.

10:15 a.m.- 10:45 a.m.


10:45 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.

Regionalization: Old Wine in a New Bottle?
Patrick Brundage, Vice President, Enterprise Analytics Practice, Cognizant

Historically, the pharmaceutical industry has cycled between centralized and decentralized sales models many times. In the middle 90's, there was a movement toward regionalization primarily in response to the Clinton Healthcare Plan and the increased power of managed care. While those models eventually were largely re-centralized, regionalization has recently become a "hot topic" in the industry, for a variety of reasons:
  • Physician access differs by geography
  • High variability of payer mix and formulary status across regions
  • State specific regulations of per-doctor spending caps
The goal of this presentation is to provide guidance from our experience across three main dimensions:
  • The role regionalization plays in the overall corporate vision
  • An analytic framework for evaluating regionalization
  • Key implementation issues that drive success
The presentation contains recommendations regarding what has worked and what has been problematic in the regionalization efforts seen to date. We will offer alternatives to regionalization that can be at least as effective, without as much disruption to the existing sales organization. By taking a systematic and analytical approach, a company can maximize the success of regionalization by aligning and implementing the effort with corporate strategy.

11:30 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.

Preparing Today for a Future Focused on Customer Value Creation
Angela Bakker Lee, Principal, ZS Associates

The presentation describes how new selling models emerging in the pharmaceutical industry today -- focused on value creation -- are creating challenges for management science and sales operations teams that need to step in and support the move from "vision" (or pilot) to full scale robust implementation.

Traditional data sources, analytics, and metrics are no longer sufficient. Success requires a new approach and new tools that can track value creation above and beyond merely assessing sales impact. Relatively few companies in our industry today have taken the steps required to make a full transition to this kind of model. However, those organizations that have made the transition are now reaping significant rewards. The benefits of a value-creation model include not only a positive ROI, but ability to combat price erosion, to increase customer loyalty, and grow market share. Based on these known benefits, and increasing political pressure, many in the industry are now planning to undergo a similar transformation…. and looking for a roadmap that helps navigate the data & analytics challenges it raises. We will share selected case studies from the pharmaceutical industry that highlight how this transformation can be achieved, as well as the new metrics, new measurement tools, and new incentives that are required for success.

12:15 p.m. - 2:45 p.m.

Lunch, VENDOR FAIR and Posters

2:45 p.m.- 3:30 p.m.

Effective Off-Shoring in Business Analytics
Raj Dave, President, PharmARC Inc.

Off-shoring in business analytics is the subject of some controversy in the industry. The presentation will provide a case study of how one business analytics department evaluated appropriate use of an off-shore partner and then implemented a relationship. The case study involves both using an off-shore partner for analytical support as well as technology development. The area of focus will be development and support of sales performance systems for the home office and the sales force.

3:30 p.m.- 4:00 p.m.Break, VENDOR FAIR and posters

4:00 p.m.- 4:30 p.m.PMSA Business Meeting

4:30 p.m. - 5:15 p.m. A New Paradigm for Forecasting the Sales of New Pharmaceutical Products
Ken Sobel

5:15 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.

Final Remarks
Katharine McMullen

6:15 p.m.

PMSA Special Event
The Jepson and Telfair Museums and a famous Savannah Square will provide you with a "Taste of Savannah".

May 4, 2011

8:00 a.m. - 8:45 a.m.

Track A: Commercial Models - Group Practice/Account-Based Selling Model
Eric Talbot, Sr. Director, Strategic Consulting, David Bendall, Sr. Director, Strategic Consulting, AdvantageMS

The share of voice model of detailing has run its course. Combine with current trends and the requirement of maintaining profit levels via cost cutting programs, the industry requires more efficient business practices. This session will outline a group practice based sales model in which current performance levels can be maintained with fewer resources or with resources remaining constant level provide greater returns. The starting point of this model is a shift away valuation of calls and details to valuing the representative's time. Based on this new paradigm of thought the goal of any optimization, alignment, targeting and call plan program is first and foremost to maximize the number of details per day. In demonstrating how these goals can be accomplished a case study will be shared in which the group practice model can provide increase in performance of ~50%.

Track B: Promotion Mix - Industry Standards and Best Practices for Measurement of Digital Marketing Programs
Donna Wray, Executive Director and John Kain, Vice President, TgaS Advisors

Digital marketing has been growing in proportion every year. Currently, in the TGaS Advisors benchmark of pharmaceutical brands, $1 million is spent online for every $5 million offline. In past years, digital marketing was managed and measured independently, but more and more, marketing sciences staff are being called in to oversee digital marketing program measurement. This presentation will draw on TGaS marketing data from 62 brands across 18 companies to provide:
  1. A benchmark of the current industry standards for measurement of digital marketing programs, including:
    • Common KPIs and diagnostic tools: what you should insist on from your vendors
    • Points of integration (and not) across offline and digital media
    • Challenges of emerging tactics such as social media
    • Prevalence and kind of ROI analyses in pharma digital marketing today
    • Case studies of pharma brands where adding metrics resulted in a dramatic change in marketing tactics
  2. Case 1: Where solid leads turned out to be completely unqualified – and what to use to avoid this
  3. Case 2: How an "audit" metric uncovered a doubling in cost. Learn a few metrics to ask for to avoid these surprises.
  4. Case 3: How a re-alignment of metrics allowed one brand to increase leads significantly with no additional spend.
  5. Best practices
    • Most commonly neglected sources of insights
    • "Audit" metrics to ensure all is running as promised
    • Practices to leverage online metrics for offline learning
    • Examples from other industries

8:45 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.

Track A: Commercial Models - Towards the Development of a Multi-Channel Marketing and Analytics Strategy
Richard Greenburg, VP & Managing Director – Commercial Analytics, inVentive Health

The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing dramatic change, resulting from both social and economic pressures coupled with advanced technology and increased regulation. Consider the following dynamics: 1) access to physician's offices has decreased, 2) online information is increasingly available to health care providers (HCP's), patients and caregivers and 3) technology is being, and will be, adopted by HCP's that creates additional channels in which to "push" information. Given the above dynamics, which by no means is all inclusive, many companies have been exploring the notion of Closed-Loop Marketing/Multi-Channel Marketing as a way to more effectively communicate with their customers. We prefer the term Multi-Channel Marketing and define that concept as the ability to deliver the "right" message/tactic, to the "right" customer at the "right" time regardless of whether the customer is a physician, a patient or an organization and is inclusive of any channel that could be used to "touch" the customer. To achieve true Multi-Channel Marketing capabilities, it is clear that marketers will need to rethink their physician and consumer brand strategy. This will result in: 1) the development of: new analytic approaches, 2) changes in how marketing mix is implemented and 3) potentially new organizational structures being created to leverage the non-personal/digital opportunity while maximizing the value of personal promotion. This session will give an overview of the challenges facing organizations as they adopt Multi-Channel Sales & Marketing strategies.

Track B: Promotion Mix - Trial By Error: How Multiple Years of Visionary Management Science Evolved Into a Sampling Optimization Best Practice Model
Patrick Burns, President, Principled Strategies and Michael DeMartin, Director Sample Administration and Compliance, sanofi-aventis

This presentation shares highlights of a 5+ year concerted exploration of how to maximize the efficient utilization of arguably one of the two most important promotional tools in a pharmaceutical marketer's arsenal: the drug sample. This presentation shares the unique perspectives of the "client" and the "vendor" as a backdrop to dissecting what it took to develop a best practice sampling model in a small pharmaceutical manufacturer that merged and quickly became large.

9:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.

Poster Sessions and Vendor Fair

11:00 a.m.- 11:45 a.m.

Track A: Commercial Models - A New Targeting Model for Hospitals Using Risk Adjustment and Severity of Illness
Brian Griffin, Director, Thomson Reuters

This presentation uses hospital-level data to demonstrate how understanding the distribution of patients in the local secondary market, the market share of these patient groups by specific facility, and estimated profitability by defined patient type provides more specific information on hospital targeting than is currently available.

A Revolution in Physician Targeting
Patrick Homer, Life Science Sales and Marketing Practice Principal, SAS Institute

Most pharmaceutical companies focus their sales and marketing activities on the top-decile prescribing physicians for a given therapeutic area, based on purchased data. Others are experimenting with newer data sets, such as managed care & PLD—and grappling with integration issues that make it difficult to gain a true 360-degree view of physician and their prescribing practices. Others pay premium fees to outside consultancies to periodically crunch the numbers and generate physician target lists for them.

All these strategies have their benefits, limitations and constraints. However more and more pharma companies are realizing that it is the right time to make sales and marketing decisions based on deeper analytic insights—using advanced levels of predictive modeling—and with accessible technology, to bring those capabilities in-house. Organizations that take control over their own physician targeting get increased prescribing potential, more timely insights, targeting decisions aligned with business issues, and real competitive advantage.

Talking Points:
  • Review of exclusive 2009 market research into physician targeting commissioned by SAS, conducted by Pharmaceutical Executive.
  • Understand why predictive analytics are a game changer for pharma and how this can be applied to your combined CRM, sales, managed care and patient-level data to optimize physician targeting and create a distinct competitive advantage.
  • Review a number of pharma case studies that have demonstrated up to 26 percent lift in prescribing potential compared to conventional methods of physician targeting.
  • Learn how technology has evolved over recent years to enable pharma co to in-source this skill.

11:45 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.

Track A: Commercial Models - Challenges with Modeling a Specialty Launch in Multiple Settings
Ozgur Ozkan, Director of Modeling, Health Market Science

Despite representing less than 3% of global sales, vaccines are becoming a major interest to pharmaceutical manufacturers who face patent expiry of blockbuster drugs. Assessing vaccine utilization presents a challenge due to unique characteristics such as purpose of use (prevention vs. treatment), storage requirements (office vs. pharmacy) and influence of guidelines.

This presentation introduces a model used to assess the potential of a new vaccine and identify key leverage points for its successful launch and management over the near term. The model captures the flow between vulnerable and vaccinated US population that is segmented across age, risk and vaccination history. The main dynamic is the flow of new vaccinations that can take place across multiple settings (physician office, hospital, etc). New vaccinations are driven by patient visit rates and physician recommendations of alternative brands for each patient segment. The model combines a multitude of primary and secondary market research in addition to using analogs. Deployed as an online tool, the model provided a platform to quantify the impact of key drivers under different scenarios and also helped management identify where more research is needed. It also helped assess and validate promotional requirements at a high level.

Impact of Formulary Change & Plan-Plan Spillover on Individual Physician Promotional Response
Igor Rudychev, Vice President of Operations, Bayser

In this study we investigated the effects of the formulary change and the Plan-Plan spillover on promotional response curves at the individual physician level. We quantified the impact of formulary status change and Plan-Plan spillover, compared it with promotional response, and identified an optimal mix of managed care rebates and promotion. We showed that in many cases changes in the standard promotional response analysis are not connected with a promotion but rather are due to the impact of formulary status change and Plan-Plan Spillover. We described how optimal sales force size depends on contracting, i.e. in the case of eliminating contracting activities the pull-through becomes ineffective and future sales force downsizing could be market share neutral. Most of the above mentioned effects are effectively observed on the individual physician level. Another issue that we resolved by using the fuzzy-logic bridging algorithm was the connectivity between Rx level data and formulary/copay data from different sources. In addition, we developed a new approach that allows comparing the promotional response curves for different formulary statuses.

12:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.

Research Consortium and Certification in Pharmaceutical Management Science Committee Meetings

May 5, 2010

8:00 a.m.- 9:15 a.m.

Keynote Address
Jeanne Scott, Health-Politics.com

9:15 a.m.- 10:00 a.m.

Developing a Managed Care Knowledge Base to Improve Marketing and Sales Effectiveness
Steve Mermey, Senior Partner and Kevin Kirby, Vice President, Michael Allen Company

It is widely accepted that payers' power over physician prescribing decisions is strong and growing. However, most analytical tools employed to evaluate influence are based on incomplete views of payer position, and are designed to support a specific management decision (e.g., physician targeting), rather than ensuring that the set of decisions spanning marketing strategy and sales tactics are systematically aligned.

In this presentation, we will define a set of measures that can be combined to create a full view of managed care influence at the plan, geographic, and physician levels. The system of metrics can be used to inform contracting decisions. It can also be used to align payer directed initiatives with field sales and other resourcing decisions, improving overall marketing and sales effectiveness. The session will include illustrations and modified case studies to present the measurement system, validate the system, and highlight applications.

10:15 a.m.- 11:00 a.m.

Health Reform: What do we make of all of this?
Valerie Barton, Vice President, Avalere Health

The new healthcare reform legislation touches every sector of our healthcare system. In this session, we will discuss how the bills became the law of the land and focus on the law's benefits, challenges, and ambiguities. We will specifically target structural changes to the pharmaceutical sector, as well as changes to the health plan sector that will impact how plans engage with manufacturers now and in the future.

11:00 a.m. - 11:45 a.m.

A Macroeconomic Impact Analysis – Are Pharmaceuticals Immune from Recession?
Irina Popova, Consulting Associate and David Martin, Senior Partner, Michael Allen Company

The financial crisis pulled the US economy into a severe and potentially protracted recession. At that time, it was expected that every sector of the economy – including healthcare, traditionally known to be a defensive sector – would be adversely affected by the prevailing negative business conditions.

The objective of this assignment was to test and quantify the relationship of various macroeconomic variables with sales of pharmaceutical products. We used state-level monthly sales data on eleven different brands across several categories, the associated brand-specific events data, and state-level monthly macroeconomic data to estimate time-series mixed-regressions.

Understanding the impact of macroeconomic variables on brand sales is critically important for pharmaceutical companies for forecasting, budgeting, and portfolio planning purposes – especially when there is a great deal of uncertainty/volatility in the economy. Unfortunately, it is almost too easy to produce "good-looking" regression results given sufficient amount of data, and the road to a reliable model is fraught with dangerous traps that can mislead even an experienced analyst. A main objective of this presentation is to expose some of those traps in order to make macroeconomic modeling a safer and more useful analytic tool.

11:45 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.

Wrap up and raffle