2009 Annual Conference

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April 26, 2009

1:00 p.m.- 5:00 p.m.

Conference Tutorials

1:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Pre-Conference Tutorial: Targeting and Call Plan Optimization
Torsten Bernewitz and Thomas Zacher, ZS Associates

For pharmaceutical companies, achieving more with less has become a strategic necessity to sustain profitable growth. In particular, the economics of the selling process are under scrutiny.

Any waste of field force resource allocation must be eliminated. Effective targeting and call planning is a key strategic lever to achieve this goal. Successful call planning deploys field resources to the right customers – those with the highest potential and best response to sales activities – and in the right way, making sure that targeted physicians receive information about products and indications that is both relevant and valuable for them.

In this interactive workshop the speakers will lead you through a number of hands-on exercises in targeting and call planning optimization in order to provide practical take-home experiences that you can easily apply at your company.

Learning objectives of the workshop will include:

  • Helping you benchmark your current call planning efforts:

What is the current state of call planning/call plan optimization? What are other companies doing? What challenges do they face and what are effective ways of dealing with these challenges? What is the leading edge, what is "still OK"?

  • Explore different approaches for call planning strategies:

What are the respective benefits and limitations of simpler call plans vs more complex approaches? What data and analysis do you need? How do the analytics work? What are the trade-offs between keeping it simple vs more sophisticated optimization? What do you know that the organization is ready to advance?

  • Understand best approaches for successful implementation in the field:

Why do many companies experience difficulties in execution? What quality of execution can you expect from my organization? What is "best-in-class"? What are practical and successful approaches to drive superior execution? How much value can be created in this way?

April 27, 2009

8:00 a.m.- 8:15 a.m.

President's Welcome Address
Daniel Feldman, Bristol-Myers Squibb

8:15 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.

Keynote Speech: Are You Ready? Political and Economic Change in Pharmaceutical Markets
Dan Mendelson, President, Avalere Health

Fundamental change is coming to pharmaceutical markets. It's the economy, but also a brand new philosophy of how to shape and regulate healthcare in the United States. The Medicare program is now the largest purchaser of drugs in the world, and to put it gently, the program is under new management. Fundamental health reform is also on the table, including a sharp focus on insurance markets, clinical effectiveness, health information technology, and other areas of direct interest to your company. Join Dan Mendelson, who ran the White House Office of Management and Budget Health Section under President Clinton to learn about how economic and political changes will affect your markets

9:30 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.

A Forward Looking View: How Management Sciences Professionals Can Help Shape The Industry's Future
Bob Shewbrooks, Vice President and Jeff Wojcik, Management Advisor TGaS Advisors

10:15 a.m.- 10:45 a.m.


10:45 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.

Customer-Centric Deployment – Making Differential Resourcing Work
Chris Wright, Managing Principal U.S. Pharmaceuticals, ZS Associates and Rob Kime, Senior Manager of Sales Strategy and Incentives, Solvay Pharmaceuticals

Differential resourcing is a powerful new approach that truly enables for successful deployment of the sales organization in a customer-centric way. In this presentation we will challenge the conventional wisdom and explain how changes in the way the field sales force is deployed will lead to better sales outcomes, more rewarding sales careers, and better customer relationships – all being achieved with fewer sales people.

11:30 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.

Optimizing Promotional Spending for Pharmaceutical Consumer Acquisition Programs
Ira J. Haimowitz, Group Director, Insights and Optimization, Wunderman, at al.

We have developed a methodology for optimizing pharmaceutical promotional spending that drives consumers to relationship marketing programs for conversion and adherence. Prospects come from all media channels to a centralized customer database. Our marketing performance evaluator evaluates the different promotional tactics (e.g. magazines, DRTV commercials, search, banners, etc) for effectiveness using metrics like cost per qualified lead, impressions, and brand alignment. We will present our methodology, a realistic case study, and provide live demonstrations.

12:15 p.m. - 2:45 p.m.

Lunch and Vendor Fair

2:45 p.m.- 3:30 p.m.

A Novel Approach to Predict Medication Adherence
Jun Hua, Vice President, Analytic Research, Fair Isaac Corporation and Bimal Patel, MedImpact Healthcare Systems, Inc.

Lack of medication adherence is a severe problem in the healthcare industry. This presentation will discuss a research project conducted by Fair Isaac and MedImpact to develop a score to predict a patient's likelihood for medication adherence. With such a score, a patient's likelihood to adhere can be assessed before he/she starts a medication and before he/she drops off to enable proactive management of medication adherence.

The research tested different versions of predictive models using a combination of publicly available third party data and historical prescription claims data. The results of the research showed that we can successfully develop models to rank order patients based on their future likelihood to adhere to medication at brand level as well as therapeutic class level. We also found that publicly available third party data alone can enable to solid model, but historical prescription data will add value.

This presentation will share the insights and findings of the research. We will also discuss how these models can be applied in the pharma marketing environment as well as the clinical environment.

3:30 p.m.- 4:00 p.m.Break and Vendor Fairs

4:00 p.m.- 4:45 p.m.PMSA Business Meeting

4:45 p.m. - 5:30 p.m. New Product Forecast Challenges: The Impact of Market Changes to Forecast Accuracy
Patrick Howie, Vice President, New Product Development, TargetRx

The environment for new product launches has changed considerably since the beginning of 2006, when Medicare Part-D reform and the industry-wide agreement to limit DTC until 6 months after new launches both took effect. The result of these structural changes is that the use of statistical models and heuristic rules built on product launches prior to these two events will likely be considerably off.

This presentation will cover three areas: (1) the primary challenges faced when forecasting new products in pharmaceutical industry today, (2) an estimate of the impact of these two events on the adoption of new pharmaceutical products today, and (3) the presentation of a statistical approach that can be used to produce reliable parameter estimates despite changing market dynamics.

Both primary and secondary data will be used in this analysis. The primary data covers physician's perceptions of over 75 products prior to launch over the past 5 years. The secondary data covers over 400 product launches over the past 5 years. The analysis will focus on understanding whether and how new product adoption patterns have changed since the beginning of 2006.

5:30 p.m. - 5:40 p.m.

Housekeeping Items

6:15 p.m.

PMSA Special Event/Dinner

April 28, 2009

8:00 a.m. - 8:45 a.m.

Track A: Advanced Modeling - Validation of Direct-to-Patient (DTP) Promotional Response Models
Paul DuBose, VP Analytics and Roman Pearah, Senior Consultant, Principled Strategies

Track B: Forecasting - Using Analog Research to Shape a Brand
Michael Turner, Sr Practice Executive, Brand Mgmt Practice, Campbell Alliance

For years, brand management teams have turned to analog research to help inform promotional spend for their brands. However, in this increasingly competitive market environment, they are shifting toward a more comprehensive approach to conducting analog research by better identifying analog brands and broadening the focus of their research efforts. As a result, analogue research is having a greater impact on the overall commercialization strategies of products, specifically regarding the sales organization, whose leadership is leveraging the information and collaborating with brand teams to make decisions regarding size, structure, and messaging in the field.

This session will provide a case study of analog research, grounded in a study recently conducted in conjunction with a leading pharmaceutical company, to examine how manufacturers are leveraging more comprehensive analog research to inform commercialization strategies for their brands for both sales and brand management personnel. This session will also discuss the key aspects of conducting more comprehensive analog research, including

  • Defining and prioritizing criteria for selecting the most relevant analogs
  • Identifying and selecting analog brands based on their ability to meet set criteria
  • Conducting primary research to assess differentiation and provider, patient, and payer strategies
  • Identifying unique strategies defined by the situation or created by the manufacturer
  • Evaluating payer strategies regarding contracting, pricing and patient influence
  • Consolidating findings into a quantitative framework to help inform commercialization strategies

8:45 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.

Track A: Advanced Modeling - Improved Promotion Response Modeling Using Patient Level Data
Michael Ostrow, Senior Manager, Market Planning, Daiichi Sankyo and Alex Baranov, Principal, IMS Management Consulting

Promotion response modeling can be enhanced through the use of patient level data. Patient level data offers a more granular view of prescribing behavior. This enables the analyst to isolate the dynamic portion of the Rx market when measuring the impact of promotional effort. This presentation will focus on a case study, based on a recent promotion response modeling project, using real world data.

Track B: Forecasting - A New Adaptive Uptake Curve Model for the Pharmaceutical Market
Zhen Tang, Sr. Forecasting Manager, Amgen, Inc.

A major challenge for forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry is to predict market adoption pattern. This presentation describes a new adaptive model for analyzing market uptake curve and its applications in predicting future market dynamics. The new model overcomes certain limitations of the Frank Bass diffusion model and offers significantly improved versatilities to model a diverse range of market evolution patterns. The model captures three interacting factors that drive market penetration. The innovation factor, which describes the degree of a medical advancement to satisfy unmet needs, controls early adoption. The diffisuion factor models the adoption due to the effect of direct and indirect promotions. The damping factor represents the negative impact of existing market penetration on future growth. The capabilities of this new model are demonstrated by two practical business case studies of osteoporosis and statin markets using up to 20 years of historical data. Zhen will give a live demo on how to implement the new approach in Excel and provide tips for searching optimized solutions. A free Excel adaptive uptake model will be distributed to conference attendees so that they can use and modify it in their practices or researches.

9:00 a.m. - 11:15 a.m.

Poster Sessions and Vendor Fair

11:15 a.m.- 12:00 a.m.

Track A: Advanced Modeling - Advances in Prescriber Segmentation: Using Patient-Level Data to Improve Targeting, Call Planning, and Messaging
Jeremy Stamer; Sr. Director, Business Analytics; Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Eric Talbot; Director, Marketing Effectiveness, SDI Health

Historically, pharmaceutical companies were limited to targeting health care professionals using prescription data (product class, brand, and volume). The development of patient encryption technologies and the establishment of longitudinal patient databases have created the opportunity to improve targeting, call planning, and messaging. By incorporating characteristics and behavioral (media preference, etc.) information about patients and physicians, as well as the patient's medical history, pharmaceutical companies can develop a more accurate picture of the physician and their practice. Through better understanding of the prescriber, targeting can be more precise and messaging can be more focused and relevant to their needs and interests. The result is increased sales and marketing effectiveness with a minimized promotional footprint.

This presentation discusses statistical methods that can be used to segment physicians using longitudinal patient data and how these segments can be used in targeting, call planning, and messaging, with real-world examples. Examples of dimensions that will be used for segmentation include: true potential, prescriber's use of a product in the clinical pathway (line of therapy), prescriber's approach to regimen failure (switch or add), prescriber's influence on persistency and compliance, behavioral information, and the impact of socio-economic markers on treatment decisions.

Track B: Forecasting - Risk Analysis and Early Stage Forecasting in Pharmaceutical Markets
Doug Willson, Sr. Vice President, Marketing Science, GfK Healthcare

In today's challenging business environment, pharmaceutical manufacturers have increasingly turned to early-stage market research to help identify the most promising development options from a commercial perspective, and to provide information about the impact of alternative clinical trial designs and results on future market opportunities. Choice modeling is often used as the basis for these early-stage forecasts; since clinical characteristics of drugs in development are still largely unknown in early-stage research, choice modeling is attractive because it can be used to develop forecasts for many different possible clinical measurements, product characteristics, and competitive scenarios.

A common starting point for developing a forecast is a drug's most likely clinical profile. Unfortunately, forecast based on the most likely scenarios suffer from the "flaw of averages" – or expected market sharing taking into account all possible clinical outcomes. More generally, forecasting approaches that ignore the uncertainty surrounding clinical attributes may be seriously biased and provide a limited view of the market opportunities for a drug in development.

Risk analysis tools can be combined with choice models developed from primary market research to help improve early-stage pharmaceutical market forecasts and allow manufacturers to make better investment decisions. This presentation will show how risk analysis can be used to provide: more accurate estimation of expected market shares; more thorough sensitivity analysis surrounding the drivers of market potential; and better identification of crucial valuation thresholds.

Several case studies will be used to illustrate the approach.

April 29, 2009

8:00 a.m. - 8:45 a.m.

Track A: Managed Care Analytics - Managed Markets Analytics Foundation Metrics
Andy Stautberg, Director, Marketing Strategy, AstraZeneca; Kingston Smith, Senior Manager, Accenture

Managed Markets analytics have long proven to be challenging for the Pharmaceutical Marketing Science Community due to the inherent complexity of accessing and using the data required and the disparate nature of the applications and key stakeholders for such analytics. Improvements in Master Data Management and information technology have made it easier for practitioners to access and use relevant data sources. However, standards for ensuring consistent analytical approaches with these data are lacking. This presentation will outline an approach for developing standardized Managed Markets Foundation Metrics that, when maintained in a consistent and coordinated way, can facilitate transparency and coordination of Managed Markets analytics for applications across Brand Marketing, Sales, Managed Markets Strategy, and Contracting. This presentation will outline some of the key steps to building a Managed Markets Analytics Data Mart, define an example set of Managed Markets Foundation Metrics, address how to create organizational alignment around the Foundation Metrics, and present some real life examples of their use in Managed Markets analytics impacting a wide range of operational processes, from customer targeting to resource allocation to contracting decisions.

Track B: Business Analytics - Innovative Use of Patient Level Data for Incentive Compensation
Stephen M Fox, Global Practice Leader, Sales Performance Center of Excellence, IMS Health

With the increased coverage and consistency of patient longitudinal data, the data set can now be considered compensation grade. The presentation will cover some of the innovative approaches to using this anonymized patient level data for incentive compensation to align sales and marketing strategy with field incentives in ways that were previously impossible.

8:45 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.

Track A: Managed Care Analytics - Managed Markets Sales Force Design
Garry O'Grady, Sr Vice President, Sales, Campbell Alliance

Managed markets channels are becoming increasingly important. However, they present a challenging environment for designing an account management sales force as several factors prevent traditional methods of sales force design from working well. Each major managed channel – commercial/Medicare, federal, institutional, and long-term care – has its own drivers and dynamics. Although many aspects of account management are similar across these channels, there are also significant differences among them. Additionally, the relationship between account manager effort and account performance is not necessarily a linear one. Two accounts that look the same on paper, in terms of lives and revenue, might require significantly different levels of account manager effort to drive the same response. Factors like level of control, receptivity to pharmaceutical industry partnering, number of key stakeholders with which an account manager must interact, and contract status may have a more significant impact on required account manager effort than current account value.

In this increasingly challenging environment, optimal deployment of account management resources and effective management of managed markets accounts are critical. This session will examine the key aspects of designing account management sales forces that operate in the managed markets, including

  • Understanding and interpreting managed markets data sets
  • Segmenting, valuing, and prioritizing managed markets accounts
  • Understanding factors that drive account workload
  • Aligning account management and traditional sales force efforts around pull-through
  • Evaluating emerging accounts and identifying opportunities
  • Aligning account managers geographically and developing incentive plans
Track B: Business Analytics - High-Leverage ROI Projections
Lars Nordmann, President, Carson Analytics

This session presents a novel approach and tool to ROI analyses and ROI projections based on only early response data. Typically, ROI analyses are analytically complex and labor- and time-extensive to carry out. They are also typically carried out in multiple steps and correct execution requires expert judgment. In addition to ROI analyses of historic promotions, there is a real practical need for projecting the ROIs of promotions that just started and have only small histories of response data available 0 obviously it is desirable to have ROI projections of ongoing campaigns that could be used in modifying the ongoing promotions accordingly (for instance, pull the plug on promotions whose projected ROI does not appear favorable).

9:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.


10:00 a.m.- 11:00 a.m.

PMSA: Back to the Future
Mark Rose, Owner, Pharmetrika; Daniel Feldman, Director, Market Research, Bristol-Myers Squibb; Katharine McMullen, Director, Market Research, Xanodyne

This interactive review spans the history of pharmaceutical management science - and particularly PMSA – from its grass roots beginnings 32 years ago to its current membership, activities, and mission. A framework vision of the future of PMSA is also presented with particular emphasis on driving innovation, promoting social networking, setting industry standards, and serving as the gold-standard resource for the profession. Feedback from the membership will help to prioritize goals and objectives for the current and future PMSA boards.

11:00 a.m.- 11:45 a.m.

Facing the Business Development Challenge: The Need for Quality Decisions When Challenged with High Uncertainty
Paul Darling, Principal, ZS Associates

Product licensing and commercial partnering play a critical role in the growth and balance of pharmaceutical and biotech portfolios. In this presentation, we outline key management science techniques that facilitate high quality decisions in the licensing and commercial partnering arena. In addition, we discuss effective integration of multiple disciplines including: market research, forecasting, sales force analytics, and decision analysis to manage high uncertainty. We conclude by illustrating how these techniques are used to design optimal deal terms that manage risk, resolve opinion-differences between partners, and drive contract agreement.

11:45 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.

Wrap up and raffle